Peru · 2026 Presidential Runoff
Keiko Fujimori is favored to win Peru’s 2026 runoff.
A Monte Carlo model based on five recent national polls and macroregional polling averages. Our simulation runs thousands of possible election outcomes under realistic uncertainty assumptions.
Favored
Keiko Fujimori
Fuerza Popular
77.4%
chance to win
Underdog
Roberto Sánchez
Juntos por el Perú
22.6%
chance to win
Keiko · 77.4%National win probabilitySánchez · 22.6%
± 5.5 pts national uncertainty (1σ)
National Polling Average
A 4-point edge in the popular vote
Weighted average of valid-vote shares across five recent national polls.
Keiko Fujimori
52.12%
Roberto Sánchez
47.88%
0%50%100%
Keiko national margin
+4.24
percentage points
Margins below ±2 pts historically flip about a quarter of the time at the national level.
Macroregion Forecast
Peru is sharply polarized by region
Macroregions are now grouped from real departmental boundaries: Norte, Centro, Lima, Sur, and Oriente.
Legend
Keiko, dominant (>95%)
Keiko, strong (75–95%)
Keiko, leaning (60–75%)
Toss-up (<60%)
Sánchez, leaning (60–75%)
Sánchez, strong (75–95%)
Sánchez, dominant (>95%)
Peru is divided into the five forecast macroregions used in the model: Norte, Centro, Lima, Sur, and Oriente.
Regional Breakdown
Five macroregions, five different stories
Norte
Keiko90.8%
to win the region
- Polling avg (K / S)
- 55.9 / 44.1
- Margin
- K +11.82 pts
- Uncertainty (σ)
- ±9.0 pts
Centro
Sánchez99.4%
to win the region
- Polling avg (K / S)
- 38.9 / 61.1
- Margin
- S +22.12 pts
- Uncertainty (σ)
- ±9.0 pts
Lima
Keiko>99%
to win the region
- Polling avg (K / S)
- 67.7 / 32.3
- Margin
- K +35.36 pts
- Uncertainty (σ)
- ±7.0 pts
Sur
Sánchez>99%
to win the region
- Polling avg (K / S)
- 26.7 / 73.3
- Margin
- S +46.58 pts
- Uncertainty (σ)
- ±8.5 pts
Oriente
Sánchez57.4%
to win the region
- Polling avg (K / S)
- 49.1 / 50.9
- Margin
- S +1.84 pts
- Uncertainty (σ)
- ±10.0 pts
The Data
National polls included in the model
Click any column header to sort. Each poll is weighted by sample size and recency.
| Pollster | Date ↓ | Keiko | Sánchez | Blank/Null/Und. | Sample | Valid K | Valid S |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Datum | 2026-05-22 | 39.5 | 36.1 | 24.4 | 1,200 | 52.25% | 47.75% |
| CIT | 2026-05-20 | 40.0 | 36.0 | 24.0 | 1,220 | 52.63% | 47.37% |
| Ipsos | 2026-05-20 | 39.0 | 35.0 | 26.0 | 1,210 | 52.70% | 47.30% |
| IEP | 2026-04-29 | 31.0 | 32.0 | 35.0 | 1,197 | 49.21% | 50.79% |
| Ipsos | 2026-04-26 | 38.0 | 38.0 | 24.0 | 1,208 | 50.00% | 50.00% |
| Weighted national valid-vote average | 52.12% | 47.88% | |||||